BREAKING NEWS

Four different scenarios predict victory for NDA

The exit polls released after the 2019 Lok Saba polls on Sunday evening predicted advantage to Narendra Modi of being positioned comfortably to return as India’s Prime Minister for a second time.
 
Eight separate exit polls were conducted by different polling agencies which were commissioned by different media houses. 
However, they differed on the numbers to be secured by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which varied from a high of 316 to a low of 202. For the Congress, the seats likely to be secured ranged between 46 and 107.
 
It is better to note these are exit polls and they have had a history of being inaccurate in terms of exact predictions. However, if the exit poll numbers are credible, they give four different scenarios.
 
The first is of Modi’s return as PM with the BJP having a majority on its own and the National Democratic Alliance allies supplementing its strength in the Parliament. Four polls suggest this scenario. News24-Today’s Chanakya has given the NDA 336-364 seats, with the BJP anywhere between 286 and 314. 
 
The India Today-Axis poll predicted 339-365 seats for the NDA and 293-316 to the BJP alone. The News 18-ISPOS poll has given NDA 336 seats, with the BJP alone likely to secure 276 seats. It predicts that the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) would get 82 seats, with the Congress at 46 seats, just two more than what the party won in 2014. The India TV-CNX poll has given the NDA 300 seats.
 
The second scenario is Modi coming back to power as PM with the BJP as the single largest party and the NDA winning a majority. The Republic-CVoter poll predicted such an outcome, giving the NDA 287 seats. The Times Now –VMR poll has put NDA at 306 and BJP at 262. The ABP News-Neilsen poll has given the NDA a total of 277 seats., UPA 130 and others 135 seats.
 
The third scenario is of the BJP as the single largest party comfortably bagging more than 200 seats and the NDA as the single largest pre-poll formation, but at less than 272 seats. This would still give a chance to Modi to reach the majority mark by opening up doors for potential allies. None of the polls predicted such a scenario specifically, although some are in the vicinity.
 
The fourth scenario is of the BJP as the single largest party but at around 200 seat, making  a second term for Modi difficult and opening the doors for a broad Opposition alliance anchored, but not necessarily led, by the Congress. 
 
The NewsX-Neta poll has give 242 seats, with the BJP at 202 seats, 164 for the UPA and 3 for the Mahagatbandhan of Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj {Party (BSP), Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) in Uttar Pradesh. 
 
It leaves the possibility of the UPA, the SP-BSP-RLD alliance, the Trinamool Congress, and the YSR Congress and the Telangana Rashtra Samiti to come together to cross the majority mark. However, the exit polls brought cheer to the BJP cadre and they claimed it was a vindication of Narendra Modi’s popularity.

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