RIL trades cheap relative to Nifty. We forecast 12 per cent Ebitda growth in FY25E with Jio contributing lion’s share on the back of a tariff hike. Maintain Buy with Rs 3,140 PT, foreign brokerage, Jefferies said in a report.
Sharp decline in capex indicates peak capex is behind and FCF is improving. We have left earnings broadly unchanged. Project 12 per cent Ebitda growth in FY25E, the report said.
3Q capex at Rs 301 billion fell 22 per cent q/q as Jio’s capex declined on completion of 5G pan India rollout and Retail capex was low on muted space addition. Headline net debt rose marginally to Rs 1.19 trillion as company extinguished some capex creditors in Jio. We expect Retail capex to decline Rs 150 billion y/y in FY24E and fall further in FY25E. Also, Jio’s headline capex should fall Rs 300 billion in FY25E helping improve FCF abating concerns on rise in net debt, the report said.
Consol EBITDA at Rs 407 billion fell 1 per cent q/q and was 2 per cent ahead. O2C and Upstream were ahead while Jio and Retail were broadly inline. PAT at Rs 173 billion was 7 per cent ahead on higher other income and lower interest expense.
Jio results were in line with estimates. Subscriber additions were strong, partly driven by rising adoption of Jio Bharat. Arpu was steady QoQ. Jio has completed pan-India 5G rollout and management indicated a pickup in demand for both Jio AirFiber and Enterprise offerings, which are key to 5G monetisation. We believe focus on monetisation would rise further in FY25. Maintain estimates and valuation at $75 billion, the report said.
Retail is showing signs of acceleration: Core revenue growth, while robust at 30 per cent, was a slight miss. Store throughput saw a modest growth after several quarters of decline, throughput per sq ft rose 4 per cent y/y- both positives. Margin expectedly saw a 40bps expansion, led by efficiencies. Area addition slowed resulting in lower capex. Going forward, we expect capex to stay moderate as peak investments in supply-chain and digital infrastructure are behind and pace of store adds have come-off. We slightly tweak EBITDA estimates and continue to value the business at $107 billion, the report said.