Electric vehicle sales’ momentum is slowing globally, marquee global brokerage Goldman Sachs said. Europe, which has driven EV growth up to now, has shown signs of stagnation since the beginning of 2024.
Goldman Sachs cited concerns about three factors — EV capital costs due to lower prices for used EVs, poor visibility on government policy, and a shortage of rapid-charging stations.
Despite the current slowdown in EVs, the base-case scenario still calls for EV sales volume to rise 21 per cent y-o-y in 2024.
“On the other hand, we think our bear-case scenario has become more realistic given the three negative factors outlined. Under our bear-case scenario, we see EV sales volume declining 2 per cent y-o-y in 2024, and negative growth would likely result in oversupply across the EV supply chain,” Goldman Sachs said in a research note.
Sales of hybrids and plug in hybrids have been accelerating amid the slowdown in EVs.
In the US, growth has outpaced EVs over the past several months. Global hybrid sales could exceed the outlook by 1-2 million vehicles.
EVs are nearing a turning point in terms of economic viability due to potential changes to government subsidies that have lowered initial investment; aggressive pricing strategies undertaken by Chinese makers, and running cost benefits (fuel cost savings).
Capital costs upon sale are emerging as a new concern, as has been shown by the decline in EV used car prices in the UK, the global brokerage said.
